Note: Our data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS (Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, “Other”) which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market.
Through the first quarter of 2016, the market is up 4% in terms of the number of transactions; it is up 7% in terms of dollar volume. Recently, there has been what feels like an above-typical level of showings of listed properties. We still are forecasting moderate gains this year over last in all categories of property (with the exception of commercial).
Single-family home unit sales through the first three months are down slightly compared to 2015, but dollar sales are UP as we continue to see more sales in the $400,000 – $650,000 range.
Condo sales are still ahead of last year’s pace, although only 13 condos have sold during the first quarter.
Multi-family sales are still down year-to-date (no sales so far this year).
Land unit sales are UP 33% over 2015 through three months; but dollar sales are down. Only 16 tracts of land have sold in the first quarter. We see signs of slowly increasing interest in land.
Commercial sales are one this year vs. none last year for this time period.
TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property) – 2016 vs. 2015
Month of March
# of Closed Sales INCREASED from 30 to 33 (+10%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $7.09 million to $6.97 million (-2%)
Year to March 31 – (3 months)
# of Closed Sales INCREASED FROM 71 at 74 (+4%)
Dollar Sales INCREASED from $16.55 million to $17.67 million (+7%)
March unit sales were 21 this year vs. 20 in March 2015. Dollar sales were UP 6.3%, from $5.67 million to $6.03 million. The highest sale price was $675,000; there was one sale in the $500,000’s; three in the $400,000’s; five in the $300,000’s; four in the $200,000’s; the remaining seven were under $200,000.
Year-to-date unit sales are DOWN by 3 homes (-6.4%) over last year’s pace (44 vs. 47). But dollar sales are UP 11.0%, from $12.39 million to $13.75 million. We are continuing to see more sales in the middle and high price ranges. The highest sale price so far this year is $787,600. There have been three sales in the $600,000’s; one in the $500,000’s; seven in the $400,000’s.
Inventory and Sales by Price category
|Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $200,000||65||65||190||47||25%||92||36%||12||27%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||62||56||109||46||25%||56||22%||10||23%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||41||41||69||35||19%||52||21%||11||25%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||39||35||39||17||9%||24||9%||6||14%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||40||37||35||20||11%||15||6%||2||4%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||18||17||27||7||4%||9||4%||3||7%|
|$800,001 – $1,000,000||14||13||36||8||4%||4||2%||0||0 %|
The number of pending sales has stayed the same as last month at 22.
Inventory – The inventory at the time of this report was up 5% from last month (293 vs. 278), but this is still critically low. Peak inventory in 2015 was 388 homes for sale; in 2014, it was 423. In the peak years of 2004 – 2006, there were often over 500 homes for sale at any given time. The inventory is comprised of a very wide variety of homes, in very different locations, in different styles and condition, and across a broad price spectrum. With the limited inventory, it is often difficult to find more than a few homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria. Since most buyers have no urgency to buy, they will leave without buying if they don’t see a house that works well for them. The lack of good inventory is limiting sales.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is $301,000 compared to $250,000 last year, an increase of $51,000 (+20.4%). The average (mean) is also up, from $263,700 to $312,500, an increase of $48,800 (+18.5%).
Price Discounting – Through the first quarter of this year, actual selling price has averaged 3.9% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract. However, many properties started at higher asking prices, and have had one or more price reductions before selling. The average discount from original asking price is 11.4% so far this year. Last year (2015), the discount from original asking price was 13.9%; for 2014, it was 16.9%; for the year 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30% – 40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in 2012. There was no increase in 2013-2014. Last year, prices started to edge up for good homes in the most preferred areas, due to low inventory. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. We are probably another year away from an across-the-board increase in prices.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Here is how the 44 homes that have sold so far this year have been financed:
|FHA loan||1||( 2%)|
|VA loan||1||( 2%)|
|Seller financing||1||( 2%)|
Foreclosure Sales – Through the first quarter this year, 11 of the 44 houses that have sold have been foreclosures (25%). Foreclosure sales in the past several years were:
Currently, there are only 14 bank-owned houses listed for sale; of those, three are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures is diminishing, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through three months this year is 265 vs. 248 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was about the same as today. The time it takes to sell here is longer than in many U.S. markets because most of the sales are for second or retirement homes; few people already in Taos sell and then buy a different home here.
March condo sales were just 3 vs. 5 in March 2015. Dollar volume was down from $746,300 to $392,100 (-48%).
Year-to-date unit sales are still ahead of last year’s pace (13 vs. 9). Dollar sales are UP 72% at $2.65 million this year vs. $1.54 million last year.
The median price year-to-date is up 1.5% ($167,000 vs. $164,500). The average (mean) price is up 19.1%, from $171,500 to $204,200.
As a point of reference, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through three months this year, final sales price has averaged 5.6% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 8.7%. For the full year 2015, the discount from original price averaged 8.6%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale decreased by one unit (69 vs. 70). In peak year 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $150,000||11||14||40||10||20%||19||32%||6||46%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||22||21||50||15||30%||27||45%||5||38%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||16||15||51||14||28%||5||8%||0||0%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||16||16||56||7||14%||5||8%||1||8%|
The number of pending sales is the same as last month at 7 units.
There have been no sales so far this year vs. one through March of 2015.
Currently, there are 8 multi-family properties for sale; there are no pending sales.
March 2016 had 9 sales, a gain of four over March 2015. However, dollar sales were lower ($543,200 vs. $672,000.
Year-to-date land sales are ahead of last year’s pace by 33%: 16 vs. 12 However, dollar sales are down 25%, from $1.61 million to $1.21 million.
The median price through the first quarter is $53,000 vs. $119,000 last year. The average (mean) price is $75,700 vs. $134,200 last year.
Actual sales price discount from last asking price is 13.0%. The discount from original asking price is 17.6%.
The average days on market for the 16 tracts that have sold so far this year is 595. In 2015, the average for the 87 closed sales was 612 days on market; for the 73 tracts that sold in all of 2014, it was 390; for the 86 listings that sold in 2013, it was 465.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Last||Aug.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $50,000||151||142||121||32||29%||32||37%||7||44%|
|$50,001 – $100,000||164||165||143||33||29%||28||32%||6||38%|
|$100,001 – $150,000||80||76||75||19||17%||9||10%||1||6%|
|$150,001 – $200,000||37||35||51||9||8%||8||9%||1||6%|
|$200,001 – $250,000||25||23||18||9||8%||5||6%||0||0%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||14||13||18||3||3%||3||3%||1||6 %|
The number of pending sales decreased from 16 to 14.
The inventory increased from 502 to 519 tracts listed for sale.
Although buyer interest in land is picking up slightly, the number of land sales is still very low compared to the mid-2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There were no closed commercial sales in March 2016. Through the first quarter of 2016, there has been one commercial sale vs. none in 2015 for the same time period.
The year 2015 had 17 sales, totaling $8.07 million, about the same as in peak year 2005. This shows sharply increased investor confidence in the future of the Taos economy. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million. We will be watching to see if that dramatic increase in commercial property continues this year.
Currently, there are three pending sales, including the Taos Mountain Lodge near Taos Ski Valley (asking price $1.25 million), and an RV park on the south side of town (asking price $350,000).
Springtime in Taos — What a difference a few days make!