Note: Our data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS (Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, “Other”) which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market.
Through the first half of 2016 compared to the same period last year, the total market (all categories of property) is down 11% in terms of the number of transactions; it is down 9% in terms of dollar volume. Lately, the number of properties going “under contract” has increased sharply; however, at this point in the year, it’s looking as if the market will not finish the year with much if any gain over last year.
The lack of good homes for sale, especially in the $250,000 – $325,000 range, is hurting sales. Since most buyers here don’t have any urgency to buy, if they don’t find a house they really like, they don’t buy. Another factor affecting sales is the poor state of the oil industry in Texas and Oklahoma, two major feeder markets. Lastly, continued uncertainty about the strength of the US economy, along with concerns about the global financial and political situations, are no doubt causing some buyers to delay investing in vacation and retirement property.
Single-family homes are by far the largest market segment, accounting for 57% of total unit transactions, and 74% of total dollar sales, year-to-date. Home sales are lagging last year’s pace by 22% and 9%, respectively.
Despite the slow start, we may yet have a strong summer-fall, and finish the year with small gains over last year. Interest rates are still extremely attractive, and house prices are still well below peak levels. It’s a great time to buy! The long-term prospects for Taos are good, what with the major improvements at Taos Ski Valley, the airport expansion, better marketing by the Town and a gradually improving local economy.
SUMMARY OF TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of June (2016 vs. 2015)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 49 to 33 (-32.7%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $10,459,000 to $9,709,100 (-7.2%)
Year to June 30 (6 months)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED FROM 187 at 166 (-11.2%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $45.565 million to $41.442 million (-9.0%)
June unit sales were down 25% compared to June last year: 24 vs. 32. This was the third consecutive month that sales fell below last year’s pace. However, June dollar sales were only down 0.5%, from $7,639,600 to $7,597,600. We continue to see an increase in sales in the $500,000 – $700,000 range; but the lack of inventory of lower-priced homes is constraining unit sales.
Year-to-date unit sales are down 22% at 95 vs. 122. Dollar sales are down 9%, from $33.6 million to $30.6 million.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 18.7%, from $254,500 to $302,000. The average (mean) is also up, from $275,500 to $321,700 (+16.8%). Sales above $400,000 have accounted for 29% of total unit sales so far this year compared to 21% for the same period last year.
Price Discounting – Through the first half of this year, actual selling price has averaged 4.0% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract. However, many homes started at higher asking prices, and have had one or more price reductions before selling. The average discount from original asking price is 11.0% so far this year. For the full year 2015, the discount from original asking price was 13.9%; for 2014, it was 16.9%; for 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30% – 40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in late 2012 – early 2013. There was no discernible increase until last year, when prices started to move up a little, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas. We are not yet seeing prices rise steadily across the board.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through six months this year is 282 vs. 232 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was the same as today (about eight months) — much longer than in many U.S. markets. However, we are seeing well-priced homes in preferred areas selling relatively quickly, due to the limited inventory.
Inventory and Sales by Price category:
|Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $200,000||72||70||190||47||25%||92||36%||29||30%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||73||66||109||46||25%||56||22%||18||19%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||72||59||69||35||19%||52||21%||20||21%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||48||43||39||17||9%||24||9%||14||15%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||32||37||35||20||11%||15||6%||8||8%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||22||19||27||7||4%||9||4%||5||5%|
|$800,001 – $1,000,000||19||20||36||8||4%||4||2%||0||0 %|
The number of pending sales increased from 23 to 29.
Inventory – The inventory at the time of this report was up 8% from last month (357 vs. 331). That may seem like a lot; but the inventory consists of a very wide variety of price, style, location, and condition; it is often difficult to find more than several homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Here is how the 95 homes that have sold so far this year have been financed:
|FHA loan||2||( 2%)|
|VA loan||6||( 6%)|
|Seller financing||2||( 2%)|
Foreclosure Sales – Through the first half this year, there have been 17 foreclosure sales. The number of foreclosure sales in the previous five years were:
The number of bank-owned houses listed for sale increased from 13 to 17; of those, nine are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures is lower than it was several years ago, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
June condo sales were down slightly for the fourth consecutive month: 5 vs. 6. Dollar volume was down from $1,045,000 to $844,500 (-19%).
Year-to-date unit sales are now just barely ahead of last year’s pace (27 vs. 26). Dollar sales are up 16% at $5,905,600 this year vs. $5,111,000 last year.
The median price year-to-date is down 2.5% ($175,000 vs. $179,500). However, the average (mean) price is up 11%, from $196,600 to $218,700.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through six months this year, final sales price has averaged 5.6% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 9.4%. For the full year 2015, the discount from original price averaged 8.6%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale stayed the same as last month at 68. Last year’s highest inventory was 89 units for sale in August. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $150,000||12||11||40||10||20%||19||32%||9||33%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||24||21||50||15||30%||27||45%||14||52%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||14||16||51||14||28%||5||8%||1||4%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||15||17||56||7||14%||5||8%||1||4%|
The number of pending sales increased from 5 to 6.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through six months this year is 262 compared to 534 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – 14 of the 27 condos that have sold so far this year were cash sales; 13 were financed with a conventional loan.
There have been no sales so far this year vs. four through June of 2015.
Currently, there are 12 multi-family properties for sale; there is one pending sale: a 4-unit mixed residential-commercial property on Blueberry Hill Road, with a listing price of $120,000.
June 2016 land unit sales were down over the same month last year: 2 vs. 8. Dollar sales were down from $931,000 to $157,000 (-83%). Up until this past month, land sales were tracking well ahead of last year’s pace. Buyer interest in vacant land is starting to pick up.
Year-to-date land unit sales are ahead of last year’s pace by 30%: 39 vs. 30 tracts sold. Dollar sales are down 21%, from $3.9 million to $3.1 million. Although the number of sales is up, the mix of sales is composed of more lower-priced lots than last year:
The median price year-to-date is down, from $89,800 vs. $50,000 (-44%). The average (mean) price is also down, from $130,700 to $79,500 (-39%).
Year-to-date, the actual sales price discount from last asking price is 12.3%. The discount from original asking price is 19.1%.
The average days on market for the 39 tracts that have sold so far this year is 546. In 2015, the average for the 87 closed sales was 612 days; for the 73 tracts that sold in 2014, it was 390; for the 86 listings that sold in 2013, it was 465.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Last||Aug.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $50,000||154||147||121||32||29%||32||37%||20||51%|
|$50,001 – $100,000||186||166||143||33||29%||28||32%||11||28%|
|$100,001 – $150,000||90||85||75||19||17%||9||10%||4||10%|
|$150,001 – $200,000||52||46||51||9||8%||8||9%||1||3%|
|$200,001 – $250,000||25||26||18||9||8%||5||6%||0||0%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||12||10||18||3||3%||3||3%||1||3 %|
The number of pending sales increased from 12 to 13.
The inventory increased 9%, from 519 to 565 tracts listed for sale.
Although buyer interest in land is picking up, the number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There were two closed commercial sales in June 2016, the same as in June last year. Dollar sales were substantially higher, as this year’s sales included the Taos Mountain Lodge property, which sold for $875,000. It was purchased by the Village of Taos Ski Valley, to be used for Village offices.
Through the first half of 2016, there have been five commercial sales, the same as in 2015 during the same period. Year-to-date dollar sales are up 26%, from $1,484,000 last year to $1,875,000.
The full year 2015 had 17 sales, totaling $8.07 million, about the same as in peak year 2005. This shows increased investor confidence in the future of the Taos economy. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 41 commercial listings, with two pending sales, including an RV park on the south side of town (asking price $350,000).