Note: Our data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS (Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, “Other”) which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market.
Through the first seven months of 2016, compared to the same period last year the total market (all categories of property) is down 12% in terms of the number of transactions; it is down 8% in terms of dollar volume. At this point in the year, it’s looking as if the market will finish the year with fewer sales than last year.
Single-family homes are by far the biggest component of the overall market, and unit sales are down 19% so far this year (although dollar sales are only down 7%). The lack of inventory of good homes for sale, especially in the $250,000 – $350,000 range, is hurting sales. Since most buyers looking at Taos don’t have any urgency to buy, if they don’t find a house they really like, they don’t buy. Another factor affecting sales is the poor state of the oil industry in Texas and Oklahoma, two major feeder markets. Lastly, continued uncertainty about the strength of the US economy, along with concerns about the global financial and political situations, are no doubt causing some buyers to delay investing in vacation and retirement property.
Although home prices have started to increase in some neighborhoods, they are still well below peak levels. And interest rates remain very low. The long-term prospects for Taos are good, what with the major improvements at Taos Ski Valley, the airport expansion, better marketing by the Town and a gradually improving local economy. It’s actually a great time to buy!
SUMMARY OF TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of July (2016 vs. 2015)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 42 to 35 (-16.7%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $10,412,400 to $9,540,300 (-8.4%)
Year to July 31 (7 months)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 228 to 201 (-11.8%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $55,547,100 to $50,981,900 (-8.2%)
Click here for detailed year-to-date data.
July unit sales were down by only one unit compared to July last year: 22 vs. 23 homes. This was the fourth consecutive month that sales fell below last year’s pace. July dollar sales were UP 1.4%, from $7,151,900 to $7,251,000. We continue to see relatively more higher-priced sales this year, but the lack of inventory of lower-priced homes is constraining total unit sales.
Year-to-date unit sales are down 19.3% at 117 vs. 145. Dollar sales are down only 7.2%, from $40,766,100 to $37,811,800.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 19.2%, from $260,000 to $310,000. The average (mean) is also up, from $261,100 to $313,200 (+11.4%). Sales above $400,000 have accounted for 30% of total unit sales so far this year compared to 21% for the same period last year.
Price Discounting – Through the first seven months of this year, actual selling price has averaged 4.1% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract. However, many homes started at higher asking prices, and had one or more price reductions before selling. The average discount from original asking price is 11.0% so far this year. For the full year 2015, the discount from original asking price was 13.9%; for 2014, it was 16.9%; for 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in late 2012–early 2013. There was no discernible increase until last year, when prices started to move up a little, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas. We are not yet seeing consistent price rises across the board.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through July this year is 276 vs. 223 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was about the same as today (eight months) — much longer than in many U.S. markets. However, we are seeing well-priced homes in preferred areas selling relatively quickly, due to the limited inventory.
Inventory and Sales by Price category:
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $200,000||70||72||190||47||25%||92||36%||36||31%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||83||73||109||46||25%||56||22%||21||18%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||75||72||69||35||19%||52||21%||25||21%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||48||48||39||17||9%||24||9%||18||15%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||34||32||35||20||11%||15||6%||10||9%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||29||22||27||7||4%||9||4%||6||5%|
|$800,001 – $1,000,000||21||19||36||8||4%||4||2%||0||0 %|
The number of pending sales stayed the same at 29.
Inventory – The inventory at the time of this report was up again (8% above last month) at 383 vs. 357 homes for sale. This may seem like a lot of homes for buyers to choose from, but the inventory consists of a very wide variety of price, style, location, and condition; so it is often difficult to find more than several homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Here is how the 95 homes that have sold so far this year have been financed:
|FHA loan||4||( 3%)|
|VA loan||7||( 6%)|
|Seller financing||3||( 3%)|
Foreclosure Sales – Through the first seven months this year, there have been 17 foreclosure sales. The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous five years were:
The number of bank-owned houses listed for sale decreased from 17 to 14; of those, five are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures is lower than it was several years ago, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
July condo sales were down for the fifth consecutive month: 5 vs. 8. But dollar volume was UP from $932,000 to $1,147,000 (23.1%).
Year-to-date unit sales have now dropped below last year’s pace (32 vs. 34) after leading last year through June. Dollar sales are UP 16.7% at $7,052,600 this year vs. $6,043,000 last year.
The median price year-to-date is up 17.0% ($193,000 vs. $165,000). The average (mean) price is up 24.0%, from $177,700 to $220,400.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through seven months this year, final sales price has averaged 5.8% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 9.6%. For the full year 2015, the discount from original price averaged 8.6%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale decreased from 68 last month to 63. Last year’s highest inventory was 89 units for sale in August. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $150,000||11||12||40||10||20%||19||32%||10||31%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||23||24||50||15||30%||27||45%||15||47%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||12||14||51||14||28%||5||8%||4||13%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||14||15||56||7||14%||5||8%||1||3%|
The number of pending sales stayed the same at 6.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through seven months this year is 284 compared to 462 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – 16 (50%) of the 32 condos that have sold so far this year were cash sales; 16 (50%) were financed with a conventional loan.
There have been no sales so far this year vs. four through July of 2015.
Currently, there are 10 multi-family properties listed for sale; there is one pending sale: a 5-unit property on 5 acres near Town, with an asking price of $725,000.
July 2016 land unit sales were down over the same month last year: 7 vs. 9. Dollar sales were down from $808,500 to $526,500 (-35%). Up until two months ago, monthly sales were tracking well ahead of last year’s pace.
Year-to-date land unit sales are still ahead of last year’s pace: 46 vs. 39 tracts sold (+18%). But dollar sales are down 23%, from $4.7 million to $3.6 million. Although the number of sales is up, the mix of sales is composed of more lower-priced lots than last year:
The median price year-to-date is down, from $82,000 vs. $50,500 (-38%). The average (mean) price is also down, from $121,300 to $78,800 (-35%).
Year-to-date, the actual sales price discount from last asking price is 11.4%. The discount from original asking price is 18.4%.
The average days on market for the 46 tracts that have sold so far this year is 539. In 2015, the average for the 87 closed sales was 612 days; for the 73 tracts that sold in 2014, it was 390; for the 86 listings that sold in 2013, it was 465.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Aug.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $50,000||157||154||121||32||29%||32||37%||23||50%|
|$50,001 – $100,000||184||186||143||33||29%||28||32%||13||28%|
|$100,001 – $150,000||97||90||75||19||17%||9||10%||6||13%|
|$150,001 – $200,000||55||52||51||9||8%||8||9%||1||2%|
|$200,001 – $250,000||26||25||18||9||8%||5||6%||0||0%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||13||12||18||3||3%||3||3%||1||2 %|
The number of pending sales stayed the same at 13.
The inventory increased 2.6%, from 565 to 580 tracts listed for sale.
Although buyer interest in land is picking up a little, the number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There was one closed commercial sale in July 2016, the same as in July last year. Dollar sales were down, from $1,090,000 to $615,000.
Through the first seven months of 2016, there have been six commercial sales, the same as in 2015 during the same period. Year-to-date dollar sales are down 3.2%, from $2,574,000 last year to $2,490,800.
The full year 2015 had 17 sales, totaling $8.07 million, about the same as in peak year 2005. This shows increased investor confidence in the future of the Taos economy. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 45 commercial listings, with no pending sales. The RV park that had a sale pending last month is now showing as an active listing again.