Note: Our data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS (Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, “Other”) which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market.
September 2016 sales were down slightly from September 2015. The positive variance registered in August did not continue this past month, and we have had mostly negative variances this year. September single-family homes were down 6% in terms of units sold, and 16% in terms of dollars. Condos were up, but Land and Commercial sales were down.
Through the first nine months of 2016, the total market (all categories of property) is down 5.3% in terms of the number of transactions; dollar volume is down 6.6%. Single-family homes are behind last year’s pace by 10.8% (units sold) and 7.0% (dollar volume).
At the beginning of the year, we had expected 2016 to produce moderate gains over 2015, extending the gains in 2015 over 2014; now, with hindsight, we see that the limited inventory of good homes for sale, the impact of the oil price collapse on many would-be buyers, and the pessimistic mindset affecting many prospective buyers due to all the uncertainty in the country and the world, have conspired to put buyers in a “wait-and-see” mode. But things should get better again in 2017!
SUMMARY OF TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of September (2016 vs. 2015)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 46 to 45 (-2.2%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $12,334,400 to $11,513,300 (-6.7%)
Year to September 30 (9 months)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 304 to 288 (-5.3%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $75,113,800 to $70,164,100 (-6.6%)
Click here for detailed year-to-date data.
September unit sales were down by 2 units (-6.1%) compared to September last year: 31 vs. 33 houses. September dollar sales were down 15.8%, from $10,245,900 to $8,631,800.
Year-to-date unit sales are down 10.8% at 174 vs. 195 houses sold. Dollar sales are down 7.0%, from $56,003,500 to $52,093,500.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 11.7%, from $260,000 to $290,300. The average (mean) is also up, from $287,200 to $299,400 (4.2%).
Price Discounting – For the year to September 30, actual selling price has averaged 4.1% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract. However, the average discount from original asking price is 11.2% so far this year. For the full year 2015, the discount from original asking price was 13.9%; for 2014, it was 16.9%; for 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in late 2012–early 2013. There was no discernible increase until last year, when prices started to move up some, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas. We are not yet seeing consistent price rises across the board.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through September this year is 249 vs. 224 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was about the same as today (eight months) — much longer than in many U.S. markets. However, we are seeing well-priced homes in preferred areas selling relatively quickly, due to the limited inventory.
Inventory and Sales by Price category:
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $200,000||55||64||190||47||25%||92||36%||60||34%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||66||79||109||46||25%||56||22%||37||21%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||61||69||69||35||19%||52||21%||36||21%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||45||48||39||17||9%||24||9%||19||11%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||29||32||35||20||11%||15||6%||15||9%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||27||28||27||7||4%||9||4%||6||3%|
|$800,001 – $1,000,000||24||22||36||8||4%||4||2%||0||0 %|
The number of pending sales increased from 18 to 20.
Inventory – The inventory shrank again, from 365 homes on the market last month to 330 this month. This may seem like a lot of homes for buyers to choose from, but the inventory consists of a very wide variety of price, style, location, and condition; so it is often difficult to find more than several homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria. Note that in September of 2008, there were 518 homes listed for sale.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Here is how the 174 homes that have sold so far this year have been financed:
|FHA loan||8||( 5%)|
|VA loan||7||( 4%)|
|Seller financing||5||( 3%)|
Foreclosure Sales – Through the first nine months this year, there have been 26 foreclosure sales (14.9% of total houses sold). The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous five years were:
The number of bank-owned houses listed for sale decreased again, from 13 to 10; of those, five are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures has diminished steadily over the past several years, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
September condo sales were up for the second consecutive month, with 9 condos sold vs. 4 last year. Dollar volume was up from $556,000 to $2,050,000 (269%). There were two condos sold in the mid-$300,000’s.
Year-to-date unit sales are now ahead of last year’s pace (47 vs. 43). Dollar sales are up 35.9% at $10,413,100 this year vs. $7,661,300 last year.
The median price year-to-date is up 13.9% ($188,000 vs. $165,000). The average (mean) price is up 24.4%, from $178,200 to $221,600.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through nine months this year, final sales price has averaged 5.4% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 12.6%. For the full year 2015, the discount from original price averaged 8.6%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale at the time of this report decreased from 65 last month to 60. Last year’s highest inventory was 89 units for sale in August. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $150,000||10||11||40||10||20%||19||32%||15||32%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||24||25||50||15||30%||27||45%||20||42%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||12||12||51||14||28%||5||8%||6||13%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||9||13||56||7||14%||5||8%||4||9%|
The number of pending sales increased from 4 to 5.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through nine months this year is 273 compared to 405 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – 23 (49%) of the 47 condos that have sold so far this year were cash sales; 23 (49%) were financed with a conventional loan; there was one FHA loan.
There were no sales in September. Year-to-date there has been only one sale vs. four through September of 2015.
Currently, there are eight multi-family properties listed for sale; there is one pending sale: a 5-unit property on 5 acres near Town, with an asking price of $725,000.
September 2016 land unit sales were down over the same month last year: 4 vs. 7. Dollar sales were also down, from $717,500 to $431,500 (-39.9%).
Year-to-date land unit sales are still ahead of last year’s pace by 13.5% (59 vs. 52 tracts sold). But dollar sales are down 18.2%, from $5,713,000 to $4,674,200. Although the number of sales is up, the mix of sales is composed of more lower-priced lots than last year (see the chart below).
The median price year-to-date is down, from $67,500 vs. $55,000 (-18.5%). The average (mean) price is also down, from $109,900 to $79,200 (-27.9%).
Year-to-date, the actual sales price discount from last asking price is 12.3%. The discount from original asking price is 18.8%.
The average days on market for the 59 tracts that have sold so far this year is 504. In 2015, the average for the 87 closed sales was 612 days; for the 73 tracts that sold in 2014, it was 390; for the 86 listings that sold in 2013, it was 465.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Aug.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $50,000||140||159||121||32||29%||32||37%||26||44%|
|$50,001 – $100,000||188||192||143||33||29%||28||32%||20||34%|
|$100,001 – $150,000||104||105||75||19||17%||9||10%||7||12%|
|$150,001 – $200,000||52||54||51||9||8%||8||9%||3||5%|
|$200,001 – $250,000||26||27||18||9||8%||5||6%||0||0%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||13||13||18||3||3%||3||3%||1||2 %|
The number of pending sales increased from 15 to 19 tracts under contract.
The inventory decreased from 610 to 584 tracts listed for sale.
Although buyer interest in land is picking up a little, the number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There was one commercial sale in September 2016 vs. two in September last year. The property that sold was a mixed-use building on La Posta Road that had been a school at one time, then professional offices. It sold for $400,000, having been listed at $695,000 originally, and $580,000 when it went under contract. It was on the market 603 days.
Year-to-date, there have been seven commercial sales vs. ten for the same period in 2015. Year-to-date dollar sales are down from $4,301,000 last year to $2,870,800 this year (-33.3%).
The full year 2015 had 17 sales, totaling $8.07 million, about the same as in peak year 2005. This shows increased investor confidence in the future of the Taos economy. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 40 commercial listings, with two pending sale (an RV park with an asking price of $350,000, and a commercial condo in the Central Business District with an asking price of $175,000).