Note: These data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market: Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, and “Other”.
The lack of inventory of single-family homes is definitely hampering sales. September was the second month this year that single-family home unit sales did not exceed the same month in 2016. This year more buyers seem ready to buy, but when they can’t find a home that meets their needs, they don’t buy anything. Year-to-date, unit sales are still up 16% over last year’s pace, but the gain would be even greater if the inventory were better.
If you have been thinking of selling your home, call us for a free consultation and market analysis!
Condo sales were up by one unit in September. Year-to-date sales are still well below last year’s pace.
Land unit sales were much higher again in September, and they are up 46% year-to-date.
There were no commercial sales in September this year. The year-to-date total is behind last year.
TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of September (2017 vs. 2016)
# of Closed Sales Equal, at 47
Dollar Sales UP from $11.6 million to $12.7 million (+9.7%)
Year to September 30 (9 months)
# of Closed Sales UP from 290 to 335 (+15.5%)
Dollar Sales UP from $70.3 m to $85.9 m (+22.3%)
Single-family homes are the largest component of the total market. Through September, SFH accounted for 60% of total market transactions, and 88% of dollar sales.
September unit sales lagged last September’s by 7 units: 24 vs. 31 (-23%). But dollar sales were up 11%, from $8,631,800 to $9,558,800.
Year-to-date, the positive variance for houses sold in 2017 vs. 2016 is 16% (202 through nine months this year vs. 174 for the same period last year. Dollar sales are up 26%, from $52.1 million to $65.8 million.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 5%, from $290,300 to $304,700. The average (mean) is up 9%, from $299,400 to $325,700.
Price Discounting – Through the first nine months of the year, actual selling price has averaged 4.3% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract; the average discount from original asking price is 8.7% so far this year. For the full year 2016, it was 10.5%; in 2015 it was 13.9%; in 2014 it was 16.9%; in 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in 2013. There was no discernible increase until 2016, when prices started to move up some, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas. We are now beginning to see prices rising in most cases, due to increasing demand and limited supply; some areas are rising more than others.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through September this year is 199 vs. 249 for the same period last year (-20%). As with price discounting, the limited inventory is affecting days on market, as buyers are moving faster than they typically do here in Taos. The average for the full year 2016 was 228 days; in 2015 it was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was about eight months — much longer than in many U.S. markets.
|Up to $200,000||58||53||190||47||25%||78||31%||54||27%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||58||65||109||46||25%||61||24%||45||22%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||55||70||69||35||19%||49||20%||45||22%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||42||46||39||17||9%||32||13%||26||13%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||29||33||35||20||11%||17||7%||19||9%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||29||31||27||7||4%||11||4%||11||5%|
|$800,001 – $1 million
The number of pending sales decreased from 27 to 26.
Inventory – The inventory decreased again, from 323 to 296 homes listed for sale. This is low! In September 2008, there were 518 homes listed for sale. The inventory consists of a wide variety of price, style, location, and condition. With only around 300 homes in inventory, it is often difficult to find more than a few homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria. This has been a limiting factor on sales, since most Taos buyers have no urgency to buy.
How Home Sales Were Financed:
Foreclosure Sales – There were no foreclosure sales in September 2017. Through the first nine months this year, there have been 19 foreclosure sales (9% of total houses sold). The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous six years were:
Currently, there are 15 bank-owned houses listed for sale (up from 11 last month); of those, five are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures has diminished steadily over the past several years, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
September condo unit sales were up by 1 over August of last year (10 vs. 9). But dollar volume was down from $2,050,000 to $1,531,000 (-25%).
Year-to-date unit sales are 26% below last year’s pace (35 vs. 47). Dollar sales are down 33% at $7.0 million this year vs. $10.4 million last year.
The median price year-to-date is down 1.6% ($185,000 vs. $188,000). The average (mean) price is down 9.5%, from $221,600 to $200,600.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through nine months this year, final sales price has averaged 6.7% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 9.2%. For the full year 2016, the discount from original price averaged 11.8%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale decreased from 68 last month to 62 at the time of this report. As with homes, the inventory is relatively low, and it is a limiting factor on sales. Last year’s highest inventory was 72 units for sale, which occurred in January. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time. However, the most critical constraint on condo sales has been financing: it is more difficult to get a conventional ( federally-insured) loan for a condo today than it was before the financial crisis of 2008.
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||# of||# of|
|Up to $150,000||5||8||40||10||20%||22||33%||9||26%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||18||23||50||15||30%||27||40%||19||54%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||16||16||51||14||28%||10||15%||3||9%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||15||16||56||7||14%||6||9%||4||11%|
There are 11 pending sales, up from 7 last month.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through nine months this year is 199 compared to 273 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2016 was 259; in 2015 it was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Of the 35 condos that have sold so far this year, 23 were cash sales (66%), and 12 were financed with a conventional loan (34%).
There were no sales in September 2017, the same as September 2016.
Year-to-date there have been four sales vs. one through the same period in 2016. Total dollar volume for the four sales this year was $1,790,000 vs. $112,500 for the one sale last year.
Currently, there are four multi-family properties listed for sale; there is one pending sale.
Investor interest in multi-family should start to increase. The supply of long-term rentals is low because many property owners have switched to short-term (vacation) rentals. Long-term renters are having difficulty finding places to live. Rents are rising; therefore capitalization rates (net operating income as a percentage of sales price) should become more attractive to investors. On the other hand, if interest rates rise significantly, then investors will demand higher cap rates, which will reduce values unless rents increase commensurately. Additionally, obtaining financing for multi-family properties of more than two units is difficult because the lack of sales means that there are not enough comparable sales for lenders: they generally require two comps in the past 12 months.
Land sales continue to pick up. September was another month of gains over 2016 pace: unit sales were 13 vs. 6 (+117%). Dollar volume was up from $526,500 to $1,639,300 (+211%).
Year-to-date unit sales are up 46% at 89 vs. 61 tracts sold. Dollar sales are up 78%, from $4.8 million to $8.5 million.
The median price year-to-date is up 18%, from $55,000 to $65,000. The average (mean) price is up 22%, from $78,200 to $95,200.
The highest sale price so far this year is $700,000, a 12.9-acre tract near Town zoned for four residential units per acre. In August, a 30-acre rural-agricultural tract a few miles south of Taos center sold for $425,000. Of the 89 tracts that have sold this year, 31 were over $100,000. There have been no commercial tracts sold.
Price Discounting – Year-to-date, the final sales price has averaged 12.7% less than last asking price; the discount from original asking price is 23.3%. This average was skewed by four sales: a 103-acre tract with original ask of $531,000, sold price of $162,500; a 10-acre tract originally listed at $325,000 that sold for $152,000; the 12.9-acre tract noted above which had an original price of $1 million and sold for $700,000; and a 151-acre rural parcel that had an original price of $425,000 and sold for $250,000. For the full year 2016, the discount from last asking price was 13.4%; the discount from original asking price was 22.4%.
The average days on market for the 89 tracts that have sold year-to-date was 486 vs. 503 for the same period last year. In the full year 2016, days on market averaged 464; in 2015 it was 605 days; in 2014 it was 390; in 2013 it was 465.
|Up to $50,000||157||159||32||37%||42||47%||33||37%|
|$50,000 – $100,000||201||206||28||32%||31||34%||25||28%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||15||15||3||3%||2||2%||2||2%|
There are 17 pending sales, up from 13 last month.
The inventory is 572 tracts listed for sale, down from 598 last month, but still a huge supply (5 years at current sales pace).
The number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There were no commercial sales in September 2017 vs. one in September 2016.
Through the first nine months of 2017, there have been five sales, totaling $2,851,000, compared to seven for the same period in 2016 that totaled $2,890,800.
Full-year 2016 had 7 commercial sales at a total value of $2.9 million. In 2015, there were 17 sales, totaling $8.1 million. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 38 commercial properties listed for sale. Of these, two are under contract: the RV park with an asking price of $350,000 which has been under contract for a long time, and a bed-and-breakfast on 7.5 acres of valley land, with an asking price of $950,000.
The commercial market is still weak, with a lot of vacancies in retail stores and professional office space. Unlike residential rents, commercial rents are not rising. Until the general Taos economy strengthens significantly, commercial real estate sales will probably remain feeble.