Note:  These data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market: Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, and “Other”.

SUMMARY

The lack of inventory of single-family homes is definitely hampering sales.  September  was the second month this year that single-family home unit sales did not exceed the same month in 2016.  This year more buyers seem ready to buy, but when they can’t find a home that meets their needs, they don’t buy anything.  Year-to-date, unit sales are still up 16% over last year’s pace, but the gain would be even greater if the inventory were better.

If you have been thinking of selling your home, call us for a free consultation and market analysis!

Condo sales were up by one unit in September.  Year-to-date sales are still well below last year’s pace.

Land unit sales were much higher again in September, and they are up 46% year-to-date. 

There were no commercial sales in September this year.  The year-to-date total is behind last year.

 

TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)

Month of September  (2017 vs. 2016)

# of Closed Sales        Equal, at 47

Dollar Sales                 UP from $11.6 million  to $12.7 million  (+9.7%)

Year to September 30  (9 months)

# of Closed Sales        UP from 290  to 335    (+15.5%)

Dollar Sales                 UP from $70.3 m to $85.9 m (+22.3%)

 

Click here for detailed year-to-date data.

Click here for a chart with data for the past 13 years.

 

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

Single-family homes are the largest component of the total market.  Through September, SFH accounted for 60% of total market transactions, and 88% of dollar sales.

September unit sales lagged last September’s by 7 units:  24 vs. 31 (-23%).  But dollar sales were up 11%, from $8,631,800 to $9,558,800.

Year-to-date, the positive variance for houses sold in 2017 vs. 2016 is 16% (202 through nine months this year  vs. 174 for the same period last year.   Dollar sales are up 26%, from $52.1 million to $65.8 million.

Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 5%, from $290,300 to $304,700.  The average (mean) is up 9%, from $299,400 to $325,700.

Price Discounting – Through the first nine months of the year, actual selling price has averaged 4.3% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract; the average discount from original asking price is 8.7% so far this year.  For the full year 2016, it was 10.5%; in 2015 it was 13.9%; in 2014 it was 16.9%; in 2013, it was 18.4%.

Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in 2013.  There was no discernible increase until 2016, when prices started to move up some, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas.  We are now beginning to see prices rising in most cases, due to increasing demand and limited supply; some areas are rising more than others.

Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through September this year is 199 vs. 249 for the same period last year (-20%).  As with price  discounting, the limited inventory is affecting days on market, as buyers are moving faster than they typically do here in Taos.  The average for the full year 2016 was 228 days; in 2015 it was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days.  Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was about eight months — much longer than in many U.S. markets.

					—–		——-	UNIT		SALES	——–
INVENTORY					2008			2016			2017
					full	year		full	year		YTD
	Current	Last .	Sept.
	Month	Month	2008		#	%		#	%		#	%
Up to $200,000	58	53	190		47	25%		78	31%		54	27%
$200,001 – $300,000	58	65	109		46	25%		61	24%		45	22%
$300,001 – $400,000	55	70	69		35	19%		49	20%		45	22%
$400,001 – $500,000	42	46	39		17	9%		32	13%		26	13%
$500,001 – $650,000	29	33	35		20	11%		17	7%		19	9%
$650,001 – $800,000	29	31	27		7	4%		11	4%		11	5%
$800,001 – $1 million	11	12	36		8	4%		0	%		2	1 %
Over $1,000,000	14	13	13		5	3%		1	%		0	0%
TOTAL	296	323	518		185	100%		249	100%		202	100%

 

The number of pending sales decreased from 27 to 26.

Inventory – The inventory decreased again, from 323 to 296 homes listed for sale.  This is low!  In September 2008, there were 518 homes listed for sale.  The inventory consists of a wide variety of price, style, location, and condition.   With only around 300 homes in inventory, it is often difficult to find more than a few homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria.  This has been a limiting factor on sales, since most Taos buyers have no urgency to buy.

How Home Sales Were Financed:

	2015			2016		2017	y-t-d
Cash	103	41%		91	36%	75	37%
Conventional loan	118	47%		129	52%	116	58%
FHA loan	6	2%		11	4%	6	3%
VA loan	8	3%		10	4%	3	1%
Seller financing	12	5%		7	3%	0	0%
Other	6	2%		1	1%	2	1%
Total	253	100%		249	100%	202	100%

 

Foreclosure Sales – There were no foreclosure sales in September 2017.  Through the first nine months this year, there have been 19 foreclosure sales (9% of total houses sold).  The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous six years were:

2017	19	(  9%)
2016	34	(14%)
2015	34	(13%)
2014	50	(22%)
2013	37	(16%)
2012	55	(28%)
2011	44	(29%)

 

Currently, there are 15 bank-owned houses listed for sale (up from 11 last month); of those, five are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures has diminished steadily over the past several years, both locally here in Taos and nationally.

CONDOMINIUMS

September condo unit sales were up by 1 over August of last year (10 vs. 9).  But dollar volume was down from $2,050,000 to $1,531,000 (-25%).  

Year-to-date unit sales are 26% below last year’s pace (35 vs. 47).  Dollar sales are down 33% at $7.0 million this year vs. $10.4 million last year.

The median price year-to-date is down 1.6% ($185,000 vs. $188,000).  The average (mean) price is down 9.5%, from $221,600 to $200,600.

As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.

Price Discounting – Through nine months this year, final sales price has averaged 6.7% less than last asking price when the property went under contract.  The average discount from original asking price is 9.2%.  For the full year 2016, the discount from original price averaged 11.8%.

Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale decreased from 68 last month to 62 at the time of this report.  As with homes, the inventory is relatively low, and it is a limiting factor on sales.  Last year’s highest inventory was 72 units for sale, which occurred in January.  In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time.  However, the most critical constraint on condo sales has been financing: it is more difficult to get a conventional ( federally-insured) loan for a condo today than it was before the financial crisis of 2008.

						—–		UNIT	SALES
	—–INVENTORY—–				2008	Year		2016	Year	2017	YTD
	Current	Last	Sept.		# of			# of		# of
	Month	Month	2008		Sales	%		Sales	%	Sales	%
Up to $150,000	5	8	40		10	20%		22	33%	9	26%
$150,001 – $250,000	18	23	50		15	30%		27	40%	19	54%
$250,001 – $350,000	16	16	51		14	28%		10	15%	3	9%
$350,001 – $500,000	15	16	56		7	14%		6	9%	4	11%
Over $500,000	8	5	29		4	8%		2	3%	0	0%
TOTAL	62	68	226		50	100%		67	100%	35	100%

Days On Market – The average days on the market through nine months this year is 199 compared to 273 for the same period last year.   The average for the full year 2016 was 259; in 2015 it was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.

Cash Sales vs. Loans –  Of the 35 condos that have sold so far this year, 23 were cash sales (66%), and 12 were financed with a conventional loan (34%).

MULTI-FAMILY

There were no sales in September 2017, the same as September 2016.

Year-to-date there have been four sales vs. one through the same period in 2016.  Total dollar volume for the four sales this year was $1,790,000 vs. $112,500 for the one sale last year. 

Currently, there are four multi-family properties listed for sale; there is one pending sale.

Investor interest in multi-family should start to increase. The supply of long-term rentals is low because many property owners have switched to short-term (vacation) rentals. Long-term renters are having difficulty finding places to live. Rents are rising; therefore capitalization rates (net operating income as a percentage of sales price) should become more attractive to investors. On the other hand, if interest rates rise significantly, then investors will demand higher cap rates, which will reduce values unless rents increase commensurately.  Additionally, obtaining financing for multi-family properties of more than two units is difficult because the lack of sales means that there are not enough comparable sales for lenders: they generally require two comps in the past 12 months.

LAND

Land sales continue to pick up.  September was another month of gains over 2016 pace: unit sales were 13 vs. 6 (+117%).  Dollar volume was up from $526,500 to $1,639,300 (+211%).