Note: Our data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS (Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, “Other”) which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market.
October 2016 single-family home sales were UP slightly from October 2015. This marks the only the fourth month this year with a positive variance to the same month in 2015. At this point mid-month, it appears that November sales may exceed last November’s. So the year may finish with a bit of a surge!
Condo and Land sales were down substantially in November, and there were no Commercial sales. Therefore, the total market (all categories of property) was down 21% in terms of closed transactions, and 19% in dollars.
For the year to October 31, the total market is down 7.3% in terms of the number of transactions; dollar volume is down 8.3%. Single-family homes are behind last year’s pace by 8.1% (units sold) and 5.2% (dollar volume).
At the beginning of the year, we had expected 2016 to produce moderate gains over 2015, extending the gains of 2015 over 2014; now, with hindsight, we see that the limited inventory of good homes for sale, the impact of the oil price collapse on many would-be buyers from Texas-Oklahoma, and the preoccupation with the election as well as a general very cautious mindset, put many buyers in a “wait-and-see-what-happens” mode.
At long last the election is finally over! Yes, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the state and direction of the nation; but we feel that people may be ready to move forward, and that the market will resume an upward trend in 2017!
SUMMARY OF TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of October (2016 vs. 2015)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 53 to 42 (-20.8%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $13,423,600 to $10,928,600 (-18.6%)
Year to October 31 (10 months)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 357 to 331 (-7.3%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $88,537,300 to $81,182,600 (-8.3%)
Click here for detailed year-to-date data.
October unit sales exceeded last October’s by 3 units: 29 vs. 26 (11.5%). Dollar sales were up 6.5%, from $8,405,800 to $8,983,000.
Year-to-date unit sales are down 8.1% at 203 vs.221 houses sold. Dollar sales are down 5.2%, from $64,409,300 to $61,046,500.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 7.3%, from $261,000 to $280,000. The average (mean) is also up, from $291,400 to $300,700 (3.2%).
Price Discounting – Through the first ten months of the year, actual selling price has averaged 4.4% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract. However, the average discount from original asking price is 11.1% so far this year. For the full year 2015, the discount from original asking price was 13.9%; for 2014, it was 16.9%; for 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in late 2012–early 2013. There was no discernible increase until last year, when prices started to move up some, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas. We are not yet seeing consistent price rises across the board.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through October this year is 240 vs. 238 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was the same as today (about eight months) — much longer than in many U.S. markets. However, we are seeing well-priced homes in preferred areas selling relatively quickly, due to the limited inventory.
Inventory and Sales by Price category:
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $200,000||57||55||190||47||25%||92||36%||68||33%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||60||66||109||46||25%||56||22%||48||24%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||58||61||69||35||19%||52||21%||40||20%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||38||45||39||17||9%||24||9%||22||11%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||28||29||35||20||11%||15||6%||16||8%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||26||27||27||7||4%||9||4%||8||4%|
|$800,001 – $1,000,000||22||24||36||8||4%||4||2%||0||0 %|
The number of pending sales decreased from 20 to 19.
Inventory – The inventory dropped again, from 330 homes on the market last month to 308 this month. The inventory consists of a very wide variety of price, style, location, and condition; so it is often difficult to find more than several homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria. Note that in September of 2008, there were 518 homes listed for sale. The skimpy inventory has had a negative impact on sales.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Here is how the 174 homes that have sold so far this year have been financed:
|FHA loan||10||( 5%)|
|VA loan||8||( 4%)|
|Seller financing||6||( 3%)|
Foreclosure Sales – Through the first ten months this year, there have been 30 foreclosure sales (15% of total houses sold). The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous five years were:
The number of bank-owned houses listed for sale decreased again, from 10 to 9; of those, five are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures has diminished steadily over the past several years, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
October condo sales were down for the third consecutive month, with 6 condos sold vs. 13 last year. (13 is the highest single-month total since March 2012; condos have been averaging 4-6 units sold per month). Dollar volume was down from $3,014,400 to $1,499,800 (-50%).
Year-to-date unit sales have dropped back below last year’s pace (53 vs. 56). But Dollar sales are still up 11.6% at $11,912,900 this year vs. $10,675,600 last year.
The median price year-to-date is up 15.9% ($200,000 vs. $172,500). The average (mean) price is up 17.9%, from $190,600 to $224,800.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through ten months this year, final sales price has averaged 5.3% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 12.2%. For the full year 2015, the discount from original price averaged 8.6%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale at the time of this report decreased from 60 last month to 57. Last year’s highest inventory was 89 units for sale in August. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $150,000||8||10||40||10||20%||19||32%||16||30%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||24||24||50||15||30%||27||45%||22||42%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||11||12||51||14||28%||5||8%||8||15%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||9||9||56||7||14%||5||8%||5||9%|
The number of pending sales decreased from 5 to 4.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through ten months this year is 274 compared to 364 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Of the 53 condos that have sold so far this year, 25 were cash sales (47%); 27 were financed with a conventional loan (51%); there was one FHA loan.
There were no sales in October 2016 vs. one in October 2015. Year-to-date there has been only one sale vs. five through October of 2015.
Currently, there are seven multi-family properties listed for sale; there are no pending sales. The 5-unit property on 5 acres that has been under contract sold recently; it will appear in the November data.
October 2016 land unit sales were down over the same month last year: 7 vs. 13 tracts. Dollar sales were also down, from $1,713,400 to $475,000 (-72%).
Year-to-date land unit sales are still ahead of last year’s pace, but barely: 67 vs. 65 tracts sold. But dollar sales are down 29.4%, from $7,426,400 to $5,239,900. Although the number of sales is up, the mix of sales is composed of more lower-priced lots than last year (see the chart below).
The median price year-to-date is down, from $70,000 vs. $55,000 (-21.4%). The average (mean) price is also down, from $114,300 to $78,200 (-31.6%).
Year-to-date, the actual sales price discount from last asking price is 12.5%. The discount from original asking price is 17.0%.
The average days on market for the 67 tracts that have sold so far this year is 503. In 2015, the average for the 87 closed sales was 612 days; for the 73 tracts that sold in 2014, it was 390; for the 86 listings that sold in 2013, it was 465.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Aug.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $50,000||152||140||121||32||29%||32||37%||30||45%|
|$50,001 – $100,000||181||188||143||33||29%||28||32%||23||34%|
|$100,001 – $150,000||97||104||75||19||17%||9||10%||7||10%|
|$150,001 – $200,000||46||52||51||9||8%||8||9%||3||4%|
|$200,001 – $250,000||25||26||18||9||8%||5||6%||0||0%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||13||13||18||3||3%||3||3%||2||3 %|
The number of pending sales decreased from 19 to 12 tracts under contract.
The inventory decreased from 584 to 573 tracts listed for sale.
Although buyer interest in land is picking up a little, the number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There were no commercial sales in October 2016, the same as October last year.
Year-to-date, there have been seven commercial sales vs. ten for the same period in 2015. Year-to-date dollar sales are down from $4,301,000 last year to $2,870,800 this year (-33.3%).
The full year 2015 had 17 sales, totaling $8.07 million, about the same as in peak year 2005. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 40 commercial listings, with two pending sale (an RV park with an asking price of $350,000, and a commercial condo in the Central Business District with an asking price of $175,000).
It has been a beautiful autumn, with warm temperatures and mostly clear skies. Now it’s time for snow!