Note: Our data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS (Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, “Other”) which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market.
November was another UP month. Single-family home and condo sales were both up; land was the same; commercial was down. This marks the fifth month this year with a positive variance to the same month in 2015. At this point in mid-December, it appears that December sales may exceed last Decembers; so the year may finish with just a small negative variance to last year.
At the beginning of this year, we had expected an increase in sales over 2015, extending the gains of 2015 over 2014; now, with the year nearly over, we realize there were three main factors that caused 2016 to fall short of expectation: the limited inventory of good homes for sale; the impact of the oil price collapse on many would-be buyers from Texas-Oklahoma; and the election. These factors caused many people to put a Taos real estate purchase on hold.
We do look for a moderately upward trend to resume in 2o17!
SUMMARY OF TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of November (2016 vs. 2015)
# of Closed Sales INCREASED from 35 to 39 (11.4%)
Dollar Sales INCREASED from $9,314,500 to $10,968,700 (17.8%)
Year to November 30 (11 months)
# of Closed Sales DECREASED from 393 to 372 (-5.3%)
Dollar Sales DECREASED from $97,862,800 to $92,328,200 (-5.7%)
Click here for detailed year-to-date data.
November unit sales exceeded last November’s by 4 units: 20 vs. 16 homes sold (+25%). Dollar sales were up 53%, from $5,221,700 to $7,973,200.
Year-to-date unit sales are down 5.5% at 224 vs.237 houses sold. Dollar sales are down only 0.7%, from $69,631,000 to $69,172,100.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 9.4%, from $261,000 to $285,500. The average (mean) is also up, from $293,800 to $308,800 (5.1%).
Price Discounting – Through the first eleven months of the year, actual selling price has averaged 4.5% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract. However, the average discount from original asking price is 11.0% so far this year. For the full year 2015, the discount from original asking price was 13.9%; for 2014, it was 16.9%; for 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in late 2012–early 2013. Prices are finally starting to move up some, but mainly for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas; we are not yet seeing consistent price rises across the board.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through November this year is 237 vs. 232 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was the same as today (about eight months) — much longer than in many U.S. markets. However, we are seeing well-priced homes in preferred areas selling relatively quickly, due to the limited inventory.
Inventory and Sales by Price category:
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $200,000||54||57||190||47||25%||92||36%||71||32%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||53||60||109||46||25%||56||22%||53||24%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||54||58||69||35||19%||52||21%||42||19%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||27||38||39||17||9%||24||9%||30||13%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||20||28||35||20||11%||15||6%||17||8%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||21||26||27||7||4%||9||4%||10||4%|
|$800,001 – $1,000,000||24||22||36||8||4%||4||2%||0||0 %|
The number of pending sales decreased from 19 to 16.
Inventory – The inventory dropped again, from 330 homes on the market last month to 267 at the time of this report. The inventory consists of a very wide variety of price, style, location, and condition; so it is often difficult to find more than several homes that meet a buyer’s criteria. Note that in September of 2008, there were 518 homes listed for sale. The lack of inventory has been a constraint on sales.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Here is how the 224 homes that have sold so far this year have been financed:
|FHA loan||10||( 4%)|
|VA loan||10||( 4%)|
|Seller financing||6||( 3%)|
Foreclosure Sales – Through the first eleven months this year, there have been 31 foreclosure sales (14% of total houses sold). The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous five years were:
The number of bank-owned houses listed for sale decreased again, from 9 to 8; of those, four are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures has diminished steadily over the past several years, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
November condo sales were UP after being down the three previous months, with 8 condos sold vs. 6 last November. However, dollar volume was down from $2,429,800 to $1,581,000 (-35%). Last November had three high-dollar sales at Taos Ski Valley ($499,000, $500,000 and $727,500).
Year-to-date unit sales are almost equal to last year’s (61 vs. 62). Dollar sales are up 3% at $13,493,900 this year vs. $13,105,400 last year.
The median price year-to-date is up 12.5% ($198,000 vs. $176,000). The average (mean) price is up 4.6%, from $211,400 to $221,200.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through eleven months this year, final sales price has averaged 5.4% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 12.0%. For the full year 2015, the discount from original price averaged 8.6%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale at the time of this report decreased from 57 last month to 53. Last year’s highest inventory was 89 units for sale in August. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $150,000||6||8||40||10||20%||19||32%||18||30%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||26||24||50||15||30%||27||45%||25||41%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||9||11||51||14||28%||5||8%||10||16%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||9||9||56||7||14%||5||8%||6||10%|
The number of pending sales decreased from 4 to 3.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through eleven months this year is 264 compared to 339 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2015 was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Of the 61 condos that have sold so far this year, 31 were cash sales (51%); 29 were financed with a conventional loan (48%); there was one FHA loan.
There was one sale in November 2016 vs. none in November 2015. This was a 6-unit property on five acres in town that sold for $675,00. Year-to-date there have been only two sales vs. five through November of 2015. Dollar volume is down, from $1,725,000 to $787,000.
Currently, there are seven multi-family properties listed for sale; there are no pending sales.
November 2016 land unit sales were equal to last November’s: 10 tracts sold. Dollar sales were down 9%, from $813,000 to $739,500.
Year-to-date land unit sales are still slightly ahead of last year’s pace, at 78 vs. 76 tracts sold. But dollar sales are down 27.5%, from $8,250,400 to $5,984,400. The mix of sales this year consists of more lower-priced lots than last year (see the chart below).
The median price year-to-date is down, from $69,500 vs. $55,000 (-20.9%). The average (mean) price is also down, from $108,600 to $76,700 (-29.4%).
Year-to-date, the actual sales price discount from last asking price is 11.7%. The discount from original asking price is 21.4%.
The average days on market for the 78 tracts that have sold so far this year is 480. In 2015, the average for the 87 closed sales was 612 days; for the 73 tracts that sold in 2014, it was 390; for the 86 listings that sold in 2013, it was 465.
Inventory and Sales by Price Category
|Current||Last||Aug.||# of||% of||# of||% of||# of||% of|
|Up to $50,000||159||152||121||32||29%||32||37%||33||42%|
|$50,001 – $100,000||179||181||143||33||29%||28||32%||29||37%|
|$100,001 – $150,000||98||97||75||19||17%||9||10%||8||10%|
|$150,001 – $200,000||49||46||51||9||8%||8||9%||4||5%|
|$200,001 – $250,000||23||25||18||9||8%||5||6%||0||0%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||12||13||18||3||3%||3||3%||2||3 %|
The number of pending sales stayed the same at 12 tracts under contract.
The inventory increased from 573 to 575 tracts listed for sale. At a rate of 10 sales per month, this equates to a 4.8-year supply.
The number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There were no commercial sales in November 2016, down from 3 in November 2015.
Year-to-date, there have been seven commercial sales vs. thirteen for the same period in 2015. Year-to-date dollar sales are down from $5,151,000 last year to $2,890,800 this year (-44%).
The full year 2015 had 17 sales, totaling $8.07 million, about the same as in peak year 2005. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 40 commercial listings, with three pending sales (an RV park with an asking price of $350,000 which has been under contract for a long time; the old Appleby’s restaurant with an asking price of $990,000; and a gallery space on the main road north of Taos Plaza, with asking price of $850,000.)