Note: These data exclude some areas of the Taos MLS which we do not consider relevant to the main Taos market: Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Red River, Raton, Chama, Mora, San Miguel County, and “Other”.
October 2017 was up over October of last year, despite the ongoing lack of inventory of single-family homes. Year-to-date, unit sales are up 15% over last year’s pace, but the gain would be even greater if the inventory were better.
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Condo sales were up strongly in October. But year-to-date sales are still 13% below last year’s pace.
Land unit sales were higher again in October. Year-to-date unit sales are 46% ahead of last year.
There were no commercial sales in October this year. The year-to-date total is behind last year by 2 sales.
TOTAL MARKET (all categories of property)
Month of October (2017 vs. 2016)
# of Closed Sales UP from 43 to 53 (+23%)
Dollar Sales UP from $11.1 million to $14.2 million (+28%)
Year to October 31 (10 months)
# of Closed Sales UP from 333 to 388 (+16.5%)
Dollar Sales UP from $81.4 m to $100.1 m (+23.1%)
Single-family homes are the largest component of the total market. Through October, SFH accounted for 60% of total market transactions, and 75% of dollar sales.
October unit sales exceeded last October’s by 2 units: 32 vs. 30 (+6.7%). Dollar sales were up 6.7%, from $9,105,500 to $9,719,500.
Year-to-date, the positive variance for houses sold in 2017 vs. 2016 is 14.7% (234 vs. 204). Dollar sales are up 23.4%, from $61.2 million to $75.5 million.
Average Prices – The median price year-to-date is up 8.4%, from $280,000 to $303,500. The average (mean) is up 7.6%, from $300,000 to $322,700.
Price Discounting – Through the first ten months of the year, actual selling price has averaged 4.5% less than the last asking price when the property went under contract; the average discount from original asking price is 6.8% so far this year. For the full year 2016, it was 10.5%; in 2015 it was 13.9%; in 2014 it was 16.9%; in 2013, it was 18.4%.
Price Level – Prices of single-family homes fell 30%–40% from the market peak in 2007 to a bottom in 2013. There was no discernible increase until 2016, when prices started to move up some, but only for good-quality homes in the most preferred areas. We are now beginning to see prices rising in most cases, due to increasing demand and limited supply; some areas are rising more than others.
Days On Market – The average days on the market for all the homes that have sold through October this year is 200 vs. 239 for the same period last year (-16.3%). As with price discounting, the limited inventory is affecting days on market, as buyers are moving faster than they typically do here in Taos. The average for the full year 2016 was 228 days; in 2015 it was 234 days; in 2014, it was 235 days. Even during the boom years 2004-2006, the average time to sell a house in Taos was about eight months — much longer than in many U.S. markets.
|Up to $200,000||51||58||190||47||25%||78||31%||61||26%|
|$200,001 – $300,000||52||58||109||46||25%||61||24%||53||23%|
|$300,001 – $400,000||44||55||69||35||19%||49||20%||56||24%|
|$400,001 – $500,000||33||42||39||17||9%||32||13%||29||12%|
|$500,001 – $650,000||26||29||35||20||11%||17||7%||21||9%|
|$650,001 – $800,000||23||29||27||7||4%||11||4%||12||5%|
|$800,001 – $1 million
The number of pending sales increased from 26 to 27.
Inventory – The inventory decreased again, and sharply, from 296 to 252 homes listed for sale (-15%). This is low! In September 2008, there were 518 homes listed for sale. Peak inventory this year was only 329. The inventory consists of a wide variety of price, style, location, and condition. With only around 300 homes in inventory, it is often difficult to find more than a few homes to show a buyer that meet his or her criteria. This has been a limiting factor on sales, since most Taos buyers have no urgency to buy.
How Home Sales Were Financed:
Foreclosure Sales – There were 4 foreclosure sales in October 2017. Through the first ten months this year, there have been 23 foreclosure sales (10% of total houses sold). The number of foreclosure sales, and their percentage of total sales of single-family homes, for the previous six years were:
Currently, there are 12 bank-owned houses listed for sale; of those, seven are under contract (sale pending). The number of foreclosures has diminished steadily over the past several years, both locally here in Taos and nationally.
October condo unit sales were up by 5 over October of last year (11 vs. 6). Dollar volume was up 165% from $1,499,800 to $3,984,000. There was one sale for $700,000 (at Taos Ski Valley); there were three sales in the $400,000’s, and three in the $300,000’s.
Year-to-date unit sales are 13.2% below last year’s pace (46 vs. 53). Dollar sales are down 7.6% at $11.0 million this year vs. $11.9 million last year.
The median price year-to-date is up 5.8% ($211,500 vs. $200,000). The average (mean) price is up 6.4%, from $200,000 to $211,500.
As a comparison to peak market levels, in the full year 2006 there were 149 condos sold, with a median price of $251,000, and an average price of $259,300.
Price Discounting – Through ten months this year, final sales price has averaged 4.5% less than last asking price when the property went under contract. The average discount from original asking price is 6.8%. For the full year 2016, the discount from original price averaged 11.8%.
Inventory – The number of condos listed for sale dropped from 62 last month to 48 at the time of this report. As with homes, the inventory is relatively low, and it is a limiting factor on sales. Last year’s highest inventory was 72 units for sale, which occurred in January. In 2006, there were often over 200 condos on the market at any given time. However, the most critical constraint on condo sales has been financing: it is more difficult to get a conventional ( federally-insured) loan for a condo today than it was before the financial crisis of 2008.
|Current||Last||Sept.||# of||# of||# of|
|Up to $150,000||5||5||40||10||20%||22||33%||10||22%|
|$150,001 – $250,000||15||18||50||15||30%||27||40%||20||43%|
|$250,001 – $350,000||10||16||51||14||28%||10||15%||7||15%|
|$350,001 – $500,000||11||15||56||7||14%||6||9%||8||17%|
There are 7 pending sales, down from 11 last month.
Days On Market – The average days on the market through ten months this year is 202 compared to 274 for the same period last year. The average for the full year 2016 was 259; in 2015 it was 328 days; in 2014, it was 237 days.
Cash Sales vs. Loans – Of the 46 condos that have sold so far this year, 31 were cash sales (67%), and 15 were financed with a conventional loan (33%).
Foreclosure Sales – Of the 46 condos that have sold this year, 5 were foreclosures.
There were no sales in October 2017, the same as October 2016.
Year-to-date there have been four sales vs. one through the same period in 2016. Total dollar volume for the four sales this year was $1,790,000 vs. $112,500 for the one sale last year.
Currently, there are four multi-family properties listed for sale; there are two pending sales.
Investor interest in multi-family should start to increase. The supply of long-term rentals is low because many property owners have switched to short-term (vacation) rentals. Long-term renters are having difficulty finding places to live. Rents are rising; therefore capitalization rates (net operating income as a percentage of sales price) should become more attractive to investors. On the other hand, if interest rates rise significantly, then investors will demand higher cap rates, which will reduce values unless rents increase commensurately. Additionally, obtaining financing for multi-family properties of more than two units is difficult because the lack of sales means that there are not enough comparable sales for lenders: they generally require two comps in the past 12 months.
October was another month of gains over 2016 pace: unit sales were 10 vs. 7 (+43%). Dollar volume was up from $475,800 to $513,500 (+8%).
Year-to-date unit sales are up 46% at 99 vs. 68 tracts sold. Dollar sales are up 71%, from $5.2 million to $9.0 million.
The median price year-to-date is up 18.5%, from $54,000 to $64,000. The average (mean) price is up 17.8%, from $77,100 to $90,800.
The highest sale price so far this year is $700,000, a 12.9-acre tract near Town zoned for four residential units per acre. In August, a 30-acre rural-agricultural tract a few miles south of Taos center sold for $425,000. Of the 99 tracts that have sold this year, 31 were over $100,000. There have been no commercial tracts sold.
Price Discounting – Year-to-date, the final sales price has averaged 12.5% less than last asking price; the discount from original asking price is 22.8%. This average was skewed by four sales: a 103-acre tract with original ask of $531,000, sold price of $162,500; a 10-acre tract originally listed at $325,000 that sold for $152,000; the 12.9-acre tract noted above which had an original price of $1 million and sold for $700,000; and a 151-acre rural parcel that had an original price of $425,000 and sold for $250,000. For the full year 2016, the discount from last asking price was 13.4%; the discount from original asking price was 22.4%.
The average days on market for the 99 tracts that have sold year-to-date was 487 vs. 496 for the same period last year. In the full year 2016, days on market averaged 464; in 2015 it was 605 days; in 2014 it was 390; in 2013 it was 465.
|Up to $50,000||153||157||32||37%||42||47%||38||38%|
|$50,000 – $100,000||193||201||28||32%||31||34%||30||30%|
|$250,001 – $300,000||16||15||3||3%||2||2%||2||2%|
There are 15 pending sales, down from 17 last month.
The inventory decreased to 553 tracts listed for sale, down from 572 last month, but still a huge supply (4.7 years at current sales pace).
The number of land sales is still very low compared to the early 2000’s. In the full year 2005, there were 339 closed land sales for a total value of $39 million. In 2006, 296 tracts sold for a total of $42.7 million.
There were no commercial sales in October 2017 or in October 2016.
Through the first ten months of 2017, there have been five sales, totaling $2,851,000, compared to seven for the same period in 2016 that totaled $2,890,800.
Full-year 2016 had 7 commercial sales at a total value of $2.9 million. In 2015, there were 17 sales, totaling $8.1 million. In 2014, there were just three sales, totaling $2.34 million.
Currently, there are 38 commercial properties listed for sale. Of these, one is under contract: the RV park with an asking price of $350,000 which has been under contract for a very long time.